This study used recently available survey data to examine trends in the rate of first union formation in the post-Soviet Central Asian republics of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan. For the first time, it shows that the rate of first

Three-day S3RI shortcourse on Small Area Estimation: 12-14 October 2009This course at the University of Soutahmpton will discuss and illustrate the problem of small area estimation, review design-based methods and discuss their advantages and limitations. Area-level and unit-level models that

In many observational studies, researchers estimate causal effects using propensity scores, e.g., by matching or sub-classifying on the scores. Estimation of propensity scores is complicated when some values of the covariates aremissing. We propose to use multiple imputation to create

We review three alternative approaches to modelling survey noncontact and refusal: multinomial, sequential and sample selection (bivariate probit) models. We then propose a multilevel extension of the sample selection model to allow for both interviewer effects and dependency between noncontact

Government statistical agencies often apply statistical disclosure limitation techniques to survey microdata to protect confidentiality. There is a need for ways to assess the protection provided. This paper develops some simple methods for disclosure limitation techniques which perturb the values

A British Society for Population Studies meeting on Poverty and Reproductive Health in Poor Countries: Issues, Measurement & Evidence will be held on May 29th with Sabu Padmadas as joint organiser.

Hukum Chandra, who recently completed his PhD in the Sample Survey Programme, has been awarded the 2009 Cochran-Hansen prize for his paper "Small Area Estimation Under Transformation To Linearity". He has been invited to present his paper at the International

We consider the specification of prior distributions for Bayesian model comparison, focusing on regression-type models. We propose a particular joint specification of the prior distribution across models so that sensitivity of posterior model probabilities to the dispersion of prior distributions

A methodology is developed to estimate comparable international migration flows between a set of countries. International migration flow data may be missing, reported by the sending country, reported by the receiving country or reported by both the sending and receiving

Categorical data frequently arise in applications in the social sciences. In such applications,the class of log-linear models, based on either a Poisson or (product) multinomial response distribution, is a flexible model class for inference and prediction. In this paper we

We extend proportional hazards frailty models for lifetime data to allow a negative bi-nomial, Poisson, Geometric or other discrete distribution of the frailty variable. This might represent, for example, the unknown number of flaws in an item under test. Zero

We model the determinants of donations made to UK overseas development charities using panel data on charities’ donation income covering a 25 year period. The paper starts by reviewing relevant theory and previous empirical work on donations to UK charities

Charitable bequests are a major source of income for charities. But surprisingly little is known in Britain about them. We review the small British and larger US literatures and then consider how best to model the decision to make a

The next two courses for the Academy for PhD Training in Statistics (APTS) will be hosted by S3RI on 1-5 April 2009. Anthony Davidson and Jon Forster will present "Statistical Modelling", and Alistair Young will present "Statistical Asymptotics".Southampton is a

Professor Chris Skinner has been awarded the Royal Statistical Society West Medal "for his fundamental contributions to social statistics methodology, particularly in the analysis of complex surveys, nonresponse and statistical disclosure control, and for his achievements in the UK and

Solange Correa, , has won an award in the 2009 Student Paper Competition promoted by the Social Statistics, Government Statistics, and Survey Research Methods Sections of the American Statistical Association. Solange, who was supervised by Professors Chris Skinner and Danny

Sample coordination maximizes or minimizes the overlap of samples selected from overlapping populations. We propose a coordination method for the case where units are to be selected with maximum overlap using two designs with given unit inclusion probabilities. Our method

This article discusses the sensitivity of the sequential normal-based triple sampling procedure for estimating the population mean to departures from normality. We assume only that the underlying population has finite but unknown first four moments and find that asymptotically the

Statistical disclosure control refers to the methodology used in the design of the statistical outputs from a survey for protecting the confidentiality of respondents’ answers. The threat to confidentiality is assumed to come from a hypothetical intruder who has access

Stochastic search variable selection (SSVS) algorithms provide an appealing and widely used approach for searching for good subsets of predictors, while simultaneously estimating posterior model probabilities and model-averaged predictive distributions. This article proposes a two-level generalization of SSVS to account