Can Russia try to attack again in other directions? – expert opinion
The White House believes that Russia may soon launch an offensive in other directions, not only in the Donetsk region. John Kirby has previously stated this. Commenting on the message about a possible re-offensive, the military-political observer of the Information Resistance group Alexander Kovalenko on the air of the FREEDOM TV channel today, March 24, said that the offensive resource of the Russian Federation would last no more than a week.
The expert believes that an offensive by the Russian army in the Lugansk region may be the most likely.
“If we analyze the forces and means that are concentrated in the combat zone, then an offensive from the Russian occupation forces is possible in a number of areas. And the most likely one, if we take the war zone, is, of course, the Lugansk region, this is the direction of Kreminna – Lyman, this is the direction of Kupiansk, ”Kovalenko noted.
At the same time, he emphasized that when we talk about the preparation of the enemy’s forces and means, one should also understand something else: do they have the opportunity to use them effectively enough, for example, to break through the defense lines of the Armed Forces of Ukraine or in order to capture a fairly serious sector in general and hold it.
“Initially, we can say that yes, the resources of the occupiers are concentrated. But the next moment immediately pops up when you start any active actions above your standard position, now it is exclusively reconnaissance in force, these are small location skirmishes, and so on, do you have the opportunity to provide these units with the necessary logistics with such activation? The material and technical support increases by about three to four times, even more. And the country, which is already engaged in the reactivation of the T-54, T-55 tanks, cannot provide this, to put it mildly, ”the analyst believes.
For the initial stage of the offensive, which can last about a week, the Russians may have enough resources, Kovalenko believes. But this resource is very quickly worn down on the defense line of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, and after that the occupiers will have to deal with total compensation for losses.
“But they simply won’t be able to do this, because, again, there is no opportunity to compensate for losses,” the expert added.
According to Kovalenko, the worst situation is with the Russian troops in the south.
“The left-bank part of the Kherson region – there will be no offensive actions at all against the right-bank part of the region. There will be only terrorist acts. That is, shelling of the territory of the right bank, including Kherson, regular attacks on residential areas, civilian infrastructure in order to sow terror, ”the guest of the air emphasized.
As for the Zaporizhzhia region, the invaders are preparing defensive actions there, accumulating resources in the forward zone, especially in the direction of the city of Orekhov, Kovalenko noted.
He assumes that the Russian occupiers can create some appearance of preparing for an offensive, but at the same time they do not even have sufficient equipment to carry out these tasks.
“Each unit is understaffed, which hinders the performance of their offensive functions. And if we are talking about the beginning of the offensive in general, then the worst situation with logistics is in the south. That is, offensive actions can look exclusively imitative: they will imitate them, ”the expert believes.
If the Russian military is able to deploy some kind of activation, then in very narrow areas, says Kovalenko. For example, as it is happening now in the Donetsk region.
“We see that there are four main locations where the last few months have been the maximum activity of the occupiers. These are Bakhmut, Vugledar, Avdiivka, Marinka. The most active two zones only remained – Avdiivka and Bakhmut. Because due to all of the above reasons, in the area of Vugledar and Marinka, the Russian resource has simply exhausted itself, and they are now in a state of operational pause to restore combat capability and replenish resources, ”added the guest on the air.
Read also: If Europe hesitates, evil can prepare itself for years of war, it is in your power not to allow this to happen – Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s address to the participants of the European Council meeting
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19 of April 2024
